Volume 3, No. 11 November 2024 - (2622-2641)![]()
p-ISSN 2980-4868 | e-ISSN 2980-4841
https://ajesh.ph/index.php/gp
Failure Prediction Models using Vibration
Data Motor and Gearbox: A Case Research in The Mining Industry PT Angsana Coal
Doni Muharom1*, Liane Okdinawati2
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
ABSTRACT
PT Angsana Coal (PT AC) is a major coal mining company in South Kalimantan,
Indonesia, which is a subsidiary of PT Energi Sinar Dunia Tbk under the Energi
Mas Group. With a vision to be a leading energy provider, PT AC has increased
its coal production from 6 million tons per annum (MTPA) in 2015 to 42 MTPA in
2023, with a target of reaching 54 MTPA through strategic expansion and
infrastructure improvement. The company's operations prioritize sustainable
resource management, advanced technology, and coal extraction efficiency. This
study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of vibration analysis-based predictive
maintenance implementation in improving Bunati system reliability, reducing
downtime, and lowering maintenance costs. The research method includes historical
data collection related to reactive maintenance and comparative analysis of
system performance before and after the implementation of predictive
maintenance. The results showed that PT AC's reactive maintenance strategy led
to a significant increase in unscheduled maintenance downtime, peaking at
706.90 hours in 2018 due to frequent motor and gearbox breakdowns. The
implementation of predictive maintenance is able to detect early signs of wear
and tear, enabling timely intervention, thus improving system reliability,
lowering downtime, and reducing overall maintenance costs. The implications of
this study show that investment in monitoring tools, personnel training, and a
robust data framework can improve PT AC's operational efficiency, support the achievement
of production targets, and promote the sustainability of the energy industry.
Keywords: Predictive
Maintenance, Vibration Analysis, Equipment Reliability, Downtime Reduction,
Condition Monitoring, Maintenance Optimization.
INTRODUCTION
The coal mining industry plays an important role in meeting global
energy needs, especially in developing countries (Indrayani & Firdaus, 2024). As one of the main fossil energy sources, coal contributes
significantly to power generation and various industrial sectors (Afin & Kiono, 2021). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report, the
global demand for coal continues to increase, especially in the Asia-Pacific
region which dominates the world's coal consumption (Voller & Hastiadi, 2024). This is driven by the growing need for energy to support economic
development and industrialization. However, the increase in coal production is
also accompanied by various challenges, including the need to maintain
operational sustainability, process efficiency, and environmental impact
management (Hade Chandra Batubara et al.,
2024).
In Indonesia, coal is one of the main export commodities that play
an important role in the national economy (Hanif & Taufiq, 2023). As the third largest coal producer in the world, Indonesia has
shown significant growth in its production capacity (Pahlevi et al., 2024). However, the industry is faced with major challenges in terms of
operational reliability and equipment efficiency. Key equipment such as motors
and gearboxes used in material handling systems play a crucial role in
maintaining mine operations. Failure of this equipment can cause unscheduled
downtime, lower production efficiency and increase maintenance costs.
Therefore, the application of modern maintenance technologies such as
predictive maintenance is an urgent need to address this issue.
PT
Angsana Coal (PT AC), one of the largest coal mining companies in Indonesia, is
located in South Kalimantan and is a subsidiary of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk
under the Sinar Mas Group. As one of the major players in the coal industry, PT
AC has contributed significantly to Indonesia's status as a major global coal
exporter. From 2015 to 2023, PT AC's coal production increased rapidly from 6
million tons per annum (MTPA) to 42 MTPA, with an ambitious target of reaching
54 MTPA in the coming years through expansion strategies and infrastructure
improvements (Figure 1). To support this vision, PT AC has partnered with
Bunati's material handling infrastructure improvement initiative to improve
operational efficiency.

Figure 1. PT Angsana Coal's Coal Production Target 2006-2036
PT AC's mining activities emphasize sustainable resource
management and the application of cutting-edge technology to maintain the
sustainability and efficiency of the extraction process. However, a big challenge
in this industry is ensuring reliable physical and mechanical availability of
equipment, especially in the face of intense competition. Based on data from
2017 to 2024, the Physical Availability (PA) and Mechanical Availability (MA)
indicators show a fluctuating trend (Figure 2). In the 2017-2020 period, both
indicators experienced a significant decline due to the high frequency of
damage to motors and gearboxes, indicating that the maintenance strategy
implemented at that time was not effective enough.

Figure 2. Maintenance Track Record of PT Angsana Coal 2017-2024
From
2021 to 2023, PT AC implemented a preventive maintenance approach, which
succeeded in gradually improving MA and PA, but was not sufficient in
addressing the underlying problems in motors and gearboxes. Therefore, in 2024,
the company adopted a predictive maintenance strategy based on vibration
analysis supported by digitalization. This strategy is expected to achieve the
performance targets set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR),
which are PA and MA of at least 90%.
Despite a decrease in the frequency of breakdowns from 27 events
in 2021 to only 6 events in 2024 (Figure 3), the amount of unscheduled
maintenance time per event increased from 464.63 hours to 706.90 hours. This
shows that although damage can be reduced, resolving each event takes longer
due to the complexity of the problem. Therefore, the implementation of more
proactive predictive maintenance technology is an urgent need to improve system
reliability, reduce downtime, and optimize overall equipment performance.

Figure 3. Frequency and Duration of Unscheduled Maintenance
on Bunati Motors and
Gearboxes
Previous
studies, such as those conducted by (Ramadhan & Nurhidayat, 2022)and Kosmowski et al. (2023), have shown the urgency of
transitioning from reactive to predictive maintenance approaches. (Ramadhan & Nurhidayat, 2022) applied the Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) and FMECA
methods to plan preventive maintenance intervals, whereas (Hatta et al., 2024) highlighted the role of big data-based predictive technologies
and artificial intelligence in supporting maintenance planning in power plants.
These findings confirm that predictive maintenance can be a more efficient
solution in managing critical assets such as motors and gearboxes.
Similar research was conducted by (Jauhari, 2023) who utilized vibration analysis-based machine learning methods to
predict failures in gearboxes in the manufacturing industry. This study shows
that the integration of artificial intelligence algorithms with maintenance
data can increase the accuracy of damage prediction by 92%, allowing companies
to reduce downtime by 40%. These findings highlight how modern technology can
have a significant impact on a company's operational efficiency.
In addition, research by (Kusumawati et al., 2017) explored the implementation of Internet of Things (IoT) in
predictive maintenance in the mining industry. By using smart sensors to
collect real-time data from motors and gearboxes, this study successfully
demonstrated a 35% reduction in average repair time and a 30% increase in
system reliability. These results underscore the importance of a robust data
infrastructure and advanced analytics capabilities to support the
implementation of predictive maintenance strategies.
Based on the above background, this research is unique in its
application to the coal mining industry in Indonesia, focusing on the use of
vibration analysis as the main method for predicting equipment failure. This
research aims to develop a failure prediction model based on vibration data on
motors and gearboxes in the Bunati system of PT Angsana Coal. The benefits of
this research are expected to help the company reduce operational downtime,
lower maintenance costs, and improve overall operational reliability and
efficiency.
RESEARCH METHOD

Figure 4. Conceptual Framework
Figure 5,This conceptual framework delineates the shift from reactive
maintenance to predictive maintenance via a systematic approach using Failure
Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and condition monitoring methodologies.
Historical data from 2017 to 2022, encompassing performance evaluations, both
scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, and failure rates of motors and
gearboxes, is employed to analyze maintenance trends and challenges. The procedure
also encompasses sophisticated condition monitoring methodologies, including
fault detection, trending spectrum analysis, and motor and gearbox evaluation,
emphasizing vibration analysis for condition assessment. These instruments
provide early defect identification and continuous asset health monitoring,
promoting a proactive strategy.

Figure 5. Flowchart Data Research Method
Figure 6 explain that The methodology for the research involves several
structured steps. The essence of the predictive maintenance model entails the
analysis of vibration data. Vibration sensors are positioned at critical
locations on the motors and gearboxes to collect real-time data.
Data Collection
This Research methodology employs a synthesis of qualitative and
quantitative data collecting to successfully solve maintenance challenges. Furthermore, Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA) is employed to qualitatively evaluate probable failure
locations, offering insights into areas for enhancement in the maintenance
process (Battirola
Filho et al., 2017).

Figure 6. Research Method Data Collection
Figure 6 explain This data gathering strategy uses both primary and
secondary sources to examine maintenance practices and performance. The Secondary Data technique emphasizes the
analysis of pre-existing records and historical data. This include analyzing
backlog maintenance data, failure rates, and maintenance performance metrics.
Data Analysis
In order to enhance maintenance techniques, data analysis research in this
context thoroughly examines both quantitative and qualitative data. The
analysis employs qualitative approaches, such as behavioral comparisons to a
maturity model, alongside quantitative techniques like Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA), which detects risks and computes Risk Priority Numbers (RPN)
to prioritize concerns (Resende et
al., 2024).

Figure 7. Research Method Data Analysis
Figure 7 explain This research methodology for maintenance strategy
analysis employs both qualitative and quantitative data to assess and recommend
enhancements. The qualitative method starts with the assessment of outcomes
from questionnaires and surveys about maintenance habits. This involves
reviewing interviews with internal maintenance personnel and external
operations teams, along with observations to detect maintenance concerns.The
Research computes the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for each failure, facilitating
prioritizing according to risk levels.
Qualitative Data
The qualitative research methodology for formulating failure prediction
models utilizing vibration data in motor and gearbox systems, specifically in a
mining industry case Research such as PT Angsana Coal.
1)
Observation: In this case Research, a
researcher would spend time in the field at PT Angsana (Figure 9) Coal's mining
site, observing the actual working conditions of the motors and gearboxes.
Observations may include the physical setup, environmental factors (such as
dust and temperature), and operational practices that could influence vibration
levels.

Figure 8.
Inspection data Motor and Gearbox using tools
2) Review of Maintenance
Records and Historical Data: Qualitative analysis also involves examining
historical maintenance records, repair logs, and failure reports to identify
common trends in equipment failures and the context surrounding them. These
records reveal patterns that might not be immediately evident through
quantitative analysis alone.
3) Document Analysis:
Technical manuals, inspection checklists, and reports on past maintenance
interventions are reviewed to understand the equipment's expected operational
conditions and maintenance protocols (Guillén et al., 2016).
Quantitative Data
The quantitative research methodology for failure
prediction models utilizing vibration data in motor and gearbox systems,
specifically within the mining sector at PT Angsana Coal, emphasizes the
systematic collection, analysis, and modeling of numerical vibration data to
forecast potential equipment failures.
1) Vibration Data
Acquisition (Figure 9): The foundation of quantitative analysis in this
research method is the systematic collection of vibration data from the motors
and gearboxes. This data is typically gathered using sensors (such as
accelerometers or piezoelectric sensors) placed on critical points of the motor
and gearbox assemblies.

Figure 9. Data Vibration Acquisition by software Analysis
2)
Data Preprocessing (Figure 10): Once collected, the
vibration data undergoes preprocessing to remove noise and outliers, which
could distort the analysis. Techniques like filtering and smoothing are applied
to ensure that the data reflects actual vibration patterns rather than random
fluctuations or sensor errors. This step ensures that the data is clean,
accurate, and ready for meaningful analysis.

Figure 10. Data Preprocessing Vibration Signal using
Software Analysis
3)
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA): FMEA is applied
quantitatively to identify potential failure modes in the motor and gearbox
based on vibration features. Each failure mode is assessed for its likelihood
and impact, and a Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for each mode.
Higher RPN values indicate higher-priority failure risks, guiding maintenance
teams on which components to monitor more closely. This quantitative
prioritization ensures that resources are focused on the most critical issues that
could disrupt operations.
RESULT AND
DISCUSSION
Define Problem
The Bunati conveying system relies on the motor and
gearbox, which are essential for driving and regulating the conveyor belt's
movement to provide effective coal transfer to barging points. The existing
maintenance strategy, characterized by its reactive and planned nature, has
resulted in unforeseen equipment malfunctions and operating inefficiencies.

Figure 11. General
arrangement Conveyor System PT Angsana Coal
Figure 11 explain The drawing illustrates both
onshore and offshore sections of the conveyor. The onshore portion is located
closer to the motor and gearbox, which initiates the conveyor's movement. The
offshore section extends towards the loading or barging area, suggesting that
this conveyor system is likely used for transporting bulk materials like coal
to barges for shipping.

Figure 12. Photo
Motor and Gearbox Conveyor PT Angsana Coal
Figure
12 Explain Existing photo of The motor and gearbox are vital elements in the
structure of a conveyor since they facilitate the operation of the whole
system. The motor supplies the necessary mechanical force to propel the
conveyor belt, therefore assuring maximum efficiency in the transportation of
Coal to Bargings. Conversely, the gearbox modifies the speed and torque
generated by the motor to correspond with the operating specifics of the
conveyor, such as synchronising the speed of the belt with the weight being
transported. In the absence of a well-operating motor and gearbox, the conveyor
would be unable to sustain ideal performance or may even cease to function.

Figure
13. Frequence Breakdown Motor and Gearbox PT Angsana Coal
Figure 13 Explain that Frequency Breakdown Motor and
Gearbox Bunati depicts the yearly breakdown incidents and unplanned downtime
hours for the motor and gearbox inside the Bunati conveyor system from 2021 to
2024. In 2023, the trend persisted with 13 incidents and an increased downtime
of 566.57 hours. By 2024, the event count decreased to 6, signifying an
enhancement in maintenance methods. Nonetheless, despite the decrease in
events, unscheduled hours persisted in increasing, culminating at 706.90 hours.
This trend indicates that although the incidence of breakdowns has diminished,
the severity or duration of each occurrence has increased.

Figure 14. Record
Performance Maintenance PT Angsana Coal
Based
on the chart Figure 14, it is evident that the Physical Availability (PA) and
Mechanical Availability (MA) values for Angsana Coal from 2017 to 2024 show a
fluctuating trend. During the period from 2017 to 2020, both indicators
experienced a significant decline, primarily due to frequent failures of motors
and gearboxes.
Measure
Critical metrics such as uptime and vibration data
are essential in assessing the maintenance performance of the motor and gearbox
at PT Angsana Coal's Bunati plant. Reactive maintenance between 2017 and 2020
led to a sharp rise in unscheduled maintenance hours, peaking at 706.90 hours
in 2018, highlighting the inadequacy of preventive measures. From 2021, the
adoption of stricter preventive protocols reduced unscheduled maintenance hours
significantly, from 503.31 hours in 2020 to 128.31 hours by 2024. This
improvement, further supported by predictive maintenance and digitalization
introduced in 2024, underscores a proactive approach to enhancing equipment
reliability and operational efficiency.

Figure 15. Record
Schedule and Unschedule Maintenance PT Angsana Coal
Figure 15 explain PT Angsana Coal reactive
maintenance strategy resulted in a significant increase in unscheduled
maintenance hours between 2017 and 2020, reaching a peak of 706.90 hours in
2018 owing to frequent motor and gearbox failures. The scheduled maintenance
hours over this period were consistently low, ranging from 157.73 to 173.60
hours. This suggests that the preventative measures used were inadequate in
preventing machine failures. Unscheduled maintenance hours exhibited a distinct
downward trend from 2021 to 2024, with a substantial decline from 503.31 hours
in 2020 to 226.48 hours in 2021, and further decreasing to 128.31 hours by
2024.
a.
Vibration Data Figure 17: Collect and analyze
vibration data from the machinery to identify patterns that may indicate
impending failures.
|
|
|
Figure
16. Taking Vibration data Motor And Gearbox Using Tools
Tabel 1. Result
Vibration Data Motor and Gearbox from 2020 – 2024
|
CV14 |
Units |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Loading |
Loading |
Loading |
Loading |
Loading |
||
|
31/07/2020 |
05/04/2021 |
24/04/2022 |
28/10/2023 |
27/04/2024 |
||
|
Motor |
mm/s |
5.77 |
7.179 |
12.819 |
6.388 |
5.761 |
|
Gearbox |
mm/s |
4.32 |
7.038 |
18.366 |
4.885 |
5.148 |

Figure
17. Vibration Value Motor and Gearbox PT Angsana Coal
Figure
17 explain The Bunati plant's CV14 unit motor and gearbox vibration data shows
how predictive maintenance may reduce unexpected downtimes and production
losses. Millimeters per second (mm/s) vibration levels are important
indications of rotating equipment such motors and gearboxes, with greater
values indicating imbalance, misalignment, or bearing wear. From 2020 to early
2021, the motor and gearbox vibration levels were low and consistent at 5.77
and 4.32 mm/s, respectively. However, in 2022, the motor reached 12.819 mm/s
and the gearbox 18.366 mm/s, showing substantial mechanical faults that might
cause massive failures if not corrected.
ISO
10816-3 defines vibration severity levels to determine if they are safe or need
maintenance. On 24/04/2022 (Loading 3), the gearbox vibration reached 18.366
mm/s and the motor 12.819. The gearbox is likely in Zone D (Danger), requiring
immediate repair, while the motor is in Zone C (Warning), indicating that
maintenance should be scheduled to avoid future issues. The next tests (2023
and 2024) show a reduction in vibration, with the gearbox recording 4.885 mm/s
and 5.148 mm/s and the motor 6.388 and 5.761.

Figure
18. ISO 10816-3 Standard Vibration Severity Level
Figure
18 ISO 10816-3 provides guidelines for evaluating the vibration severity of
machines with nominal power above 15 kW and nominal speeds between 120 rpm and
15,000 rpm. It focuses specifically on vibration measurements on the bearings
of machines, categorizing machines by size and mounting type, and establishing
acceptable vibration severity levels for safe and optimal operation.
1.
Motor and Gearbox Classification: Machines are
categorized into four groups based on power, size, and mounting type, including
rigid and flexible mountings. The standard provides separate thresholds for
each group to account for differences in structure and behavior.
2.
Vibration Severity Levels: ISO 10816-3 specifies
four vibration severity zones for machine operation:
a)
Zone A (Good): Vibration is within normal operating
range; machine operation is acceptable.
b) Zone B
(Satisfactory): Vibration is slightly higher but still within acceptable
limits; routine maintenance should be considered.
c)
Zone C (Warning): Increased vibration may impact
machine life; maintenance should be scheduled, as continuous operation in this
zone is not advisable.
d) Zone D (Danger):
Vibration is at a critical level, and immediate corrective action is necessary
to avoid severe damage or machine failure.
b.
Data Collection Tools Figure 20 : Utilize vibration
sensors, CMMS data, and historical maintenance records to gather the necessary
data.

Figure 19. Collecting
Vibration Data PT Angsana Coal
Analyze
Analyze vibration data to detect anomalies or
patterns that could predict failures. During the Analyze phase, the vibration
data is examined to detect patterns or anomalies that may signal impending
failures. For instance, the data reveals a significant spike in 2022, with
motor vibration reaching 12.819 mm/s and gearbox vibration peaking at 18.366
mm/s. Such increases suggest underlying mechanical issues that could lead to
equipment failure if left unaddressed. By analyzing these patterns, maintenance
teams can identify specific periods of increased risk and determine the root
causes of these anomalies, such as possible misalignment or component
degradation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Figure 20. Spectrum
Vibration Motor and Gearbox
|
|
|
Figure
21. Spectrum Analysis motor and Gearbox PT Angsana Coal
Figure
20 and Figure 21 The analysis of vibration data for CV 14 (conveyor 14)
indicates that the implementation of a strong predictive maintenance strategy
is essential in order to avoid unforeseen equipment breakdowns and save
downtime. Accurate determination of vibration levels is crucial since they
provide an early indication of mechanical problems, and setting specific
thresholds for action is imperative. Once the vibration level on conveyor 14
exceeds 7.05 mm/s, a warning alarm should be activated, indicating to the
maintenance staff to make necessary preparations for impending problems. This
preparedness includes verifying the availability of essential spare parts and
ensuring that the team is prepared to promptly react in case the situation
worsens. Once the vibration level surpasses 11 mm/s, it rises to a critical
threshold indicating significant mechanical deterioration or impending
catastrophic collapse. The use of this proactive strategy not only improves the
dependability of equipment but also maximises operational effectiveness by
avoiding expensive disruptions in production. By actively monitoring and
promptly responding, the maintenance crew can effectively preserve the health
of the conveyor system, therefore guaranteeing uninterrupted and seamless
operation without any unforeseen interruptions by Figure 22.

Figure 22.
Digitalization Spectrum Analysis method
c.
Perform Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to
identify the most critical failure modes and their causes. Risk Assessment to
Evaluate the risks associated with different maintenance strategies and the
potential impact of implementing predictive maintenance.
Failure
Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for a motor and gearbox system, detailing each
step according to the specified process in PT Angsana Coal:
1)
Define Role: Identify the function of the motor and
gearbox in the operation (e.g., part of a conveyor system for material
handling).
2)
List Supporting Assets: Note other assets (sensors,
control systems, lubricants) that contribute to motor and gearbox performance.
3)
Assign Unique ID: Give each motor and gearbox a
unique identifier for analysis tracking.
4)
Document Function and Failure Modes: Outline the
function and potential failure modes (e.g., overheating, vibration) for each
asset.
5)
Assess Failure Impact: Describe the operational
impact of each failure mode (e.g., conveyor shutdown).
6)
Rate Severity: Use a severity chart to assign
ratings based on impact.
7)
Identify Causes and Frequency: List failure causes
(e.g., lubrication, alignment issues) and assign a probability rating.
8)
Record Current Controls and Detectability: List
existing controls (e.g., maintenance, sensors) and assign detectability
ratings.
9)
Calculate and Evaluate RPN: Multiply severity,
probability, and detectability ratings for the Risk Priority Number; mark high
RPNs as "High Risk."
10) Implement
Mitigations and Reassess: For high risks, add controls, assign responsibility,
and recalculate RPN until risks reach acceptable levels.
Severity Level Charts
This
severity level chart for FMEA categorizes the probable impacts of failure
scenarios in a motor and gearbox system. It offers a scale ranging from 1 to 10
to evaluate the severity of each failure, with higher values signifying more
significant repercussions. This is how these levels pertain to a motor and
gearbox:
Tabel 2. Severity
Chart Level
|
Effect |
SEVERITY of Effect |
Ranking |
|
Catastrophic |
Very high severity ranking when a potential
failure mode affects safe operation and/or involves noncompliance with regulations
without warning |
10 |
|
Extreme |
Very high severity ranking when a potential
failure mode affects safe operation and/or involves noncompliance with regulations
with warning |
9 |
|
Very High |
Product/item inoperable, with loss of
primary function |
8 |
|
High |
Product/item operable, but at reduced level
of performance. Customer dissatisfied |
7 |
|
Moderate |
Product/item operable, but may cause
rework/repair and/or damage to equipment |
6 |
|
Low |
Product/item operable, but may cause slight
inconvenience to related operations |
5 |
|
Very Low |
Product/item operable, but possesses some
defects (aesthetic and otherwise) noticeable to most customers |
4 |
|
Minor |
Product/item operable, but may possess some
defects noticeable by discriminating customers |
3 |
|
Very Minor |
Product/item operable, but is in
noncompliance with company policy |
2 |
|
None |
No effect |
1 |
1)
Catastrophic (10): Failure severely compromises
safety, risks harm, or breaks regulations without warning; requires immediate
shutdown.
2)
Extreme (9): Severe failure impacting safety or
compliance, with some warning for emergency action.
3)
Very High (8): Motor or gearbox inoperable, halting
system function; major impact on production, minimal safety risk if protocols
are followed.
4)
High (7): Reduced performance, causing delays and
dissatisfaction, e.g., slower or intermittent operation.
5)
Moderate (6): Operational but needing repairs,
rework, or minor damage control.
6)
Low (5): Minor inconvenience or performance
inconsistencies, no production halt.
7)
Very Low (4): Minor defects, noticeable but
non-critical to operations or satisfaction.
8)
Minor (3): Defects evident to experts but minimal
functional impact.
9)
Very Minor (2): Fails internal standards, little
effect on function.
10) None (1): No impact
on performance or operation.
Probability Level Charts
The
FMEA probability level chart categorizes the possibility of failure, spanning
from "Remote" to "Very High." This aids in assessing the
frequency of failures in the motor and gearbox system, which is essential for
prioritizing maintenance and risk management strategies. This is how these
levels pertain to a motor and gearbox:
Tabel
3. Probability Chart Level
|
Very
High: Failure is almost inevitable |
>1
in 2 |
10 |
|
1
in 3 |
9 |
|
|
High: Repeated failures |
1
in 8 |
8 |
|
1
in 20 |
7 |
|
|
Moderate: Occasional failures |
1
in 80 |
6 |
|
1
in 400 |
5 |
|
|
1
in 2,000 |
4 |
|
|
Low: Relatively few failures |
1
in 15,000 |
3 |
|
1
in 150,000 |
2 |
|
|
Remote: Failure is unlikely |
<1
in 1,500,000 |
1 |
1)
Very High (10 - 9): A ranking of 10 or 9 suggests
that failure is almost inevitable
2)
High (8 - 7): For a high probability level, failure
is frequent but not inevitable.
3)
Moderate (6 - 4): Moderate probability implies
occasional failures, with occurrences ranging from once in every 80 uses to
once in every 2,000 uses.
4)
Low (3 - 2): A low probability ranking means
relatively few failures, such as one in every 15,000 to 150,000 uses.
5)
Remote (1): A remote probability level implies that
failure is very unlikely, with an occurrence rate of less than one in 1,500,000
uses.
Detectability Level Charts
The
FMEA detection level chart categorizes the probability of identifying a failure
mode or its cause prior to its manifestation as a problem, spanning from
"Absolute Uncertainty" to "Almost Certain." This scale
assesses the efficacy of existing controls in identifying probable problems
within the motor and gearbox system, facilitating preventative measures. This
is the application of the detection levels:
Tabel
4. Detection Level Charts
|
Detection |
Likelihood of DETECTION |
Ranking |
|
Absolute Uncertainty |
Design control will not and/or can not
detect a potential |
10 |
|
Very Remote |
Very remote chance the design control will
detect a |
9 |
|
Remote |
Remote chance the design control will
detect a potential |
8 |
|
Very Low |
Very low chance the design control will
detect a potential |
7 |
|
Low |
Low chance the design control will detect a
potential |
6 |
|
Moderate |
Moderate chance the design control will
detect a potential |
5 |
|
Moderately High |
Moderately high chance the design control
will detect a |
4 |
|
High |
High chance the design control will detect
a potential |
3 |
|
Very High |
Very high chance the design control will
detect a potential |
2 |
|
Almost Certain |
Design control will almost certainly detect
a potential |
1 |
1)
Absolute Uncertainty (10): If detection is rated as
10, there is no design control in place to detect the motor or gearbox failure,
meaning issues could occur without warning.
2)
Very Remote (9): Detection rated as very remote
indicates an extremely low chance of identifying a failure mode in the motor or
gearbox.
3)
Remote (8): A remote rating means there’s a small
chance that existing controls will detect failures.
4)
Very Low (7): With a very low detection rating, it’s
unlikely that failures in the motor or gearbox will be caught by current
controls, but there is a slightly higher chance compared to remote levels.
5)
Low (6): A low detection rating suggests a low
likelihood of identifying failures, though there is some potential for
detection.
6)
Moderate (5): At this level, there is a moderate
chance of detecting motor or gearbox failures
7)
Moderately High (4): A moderately high detection
rating means there’s a reasonably good chance
8)
High (3): A high detection rating indicates that
there’s a strong likelihood that existing controls,
9)
Very High (2): With a very high rating, there is an
excellent chance of detecting issues
10) Almost Certain (1):
An almost certain detection level means that any potential cause of failure in
the motor or gearbox is almost guaranteed to be identified before it can lead
to an issue
This
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) concentrates on the motor and bevel
helical gearbox employed to operate the belt conveyor in the maintenance
department of BLC. The research delineates probable failure mechanisms,
including overheating, excessive vibration, misalignment, and wear in certain
motor and gearbox components.

Figure
23. Failure Mode Effect Analysis Motor and Gearbox PT Angsana Coal
The
primary emphasis of the table is on Failure Mode Effect Analysis with vibration
analysis, a method to identify problems such as misalignment, imbalance, or
component defect in motors and gearboxes that operate belt conveyors. Excessive
vibration in motors might suggest issues such as rotor unbalance or bearing
wear. Upon multiplying the Severity, Probability, and Detection scores, the
Risk Priority Number (RPN) is determined, which serves as an indicator of the
level of urgency in resolving these concerns. High Reliability Provision Number
(RPN) values, such as 144 seen in instances of misalignment and bearing
failure, emphasise the importance of promptly implementing preventative actions
to reduce risks and guarantee the dependability of the conveyor system.
Compare
the performance of current maintenance practices with predictive maintenance
models. Contrasting contemporary maintenance techniques with predictive
maintenance models reveals notable disparities in efficiency,
cost-effectiveness, and equipment dependability (West et al., 2024).
Improve
Develop Solutions:
Implementing
predictive maintenance with vibration analysis is crucial for improving the reliability
of the Bunati conveyor system. This approach allows early detection of wear in
key components like the gearbox and motor, enabling timely interventions before
major failures occur. Integrating this data into a Computerized Maintenance
Management System (CMMS) enhances maintenance planning and scheduling based on
real equipment conditions rather than fixed timelines (Jonassen, 2024). Figure 24 Integrate CMMS with vibration analysis
data to enhance maintenance planning and scheduling.

Figure
24. Flowchart Computerized Maintenance Management System PT Angsana Coal
Training
is a critical component in transitioning to a predictive maintenance strategy.
Maintenance personnel must be equipped with the skills to use vibration
analysis tools and interpret the resulting data effectively. Training should
cover the basics of vibration analysis, the operation of instruments like
accelerometers and vibration meters, and proper data collection techniques.
Additionally, team members should learn to analyze vibration spectra and
time-waveform data to identify common issues such as misalignment, imbalance,
bearing defects, and gear wear, ensuring efficient monitoring and maintenance
of key equipment like motors and gearboxes.
Control
In
the Control phase, a systematic methodology is essential to maintain the
enhancements realized via predictive maintenance and to guarantee the enduring
reliability of the Bunati conveying system. Ongoing surveillance is crucial.

Figure
25.Integration CMMS with Vibration data PT Angsana Coal
Standardization
in figure 25 is essential for ensuring consistency and efficiency in predictive
maintenance operations. Formulating Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for
executing vibration analysis and interpreting outcomes will direct the team
through each phase, guaranteeing adherence to best practices in all maintenance
activities. The predictive maintenance approach should be routinely evaluated
and modified according to performance data and team feedback to facilitate
continuous improvement. This method facilitates the enhancement of maintenance
methods as new knowledge and technology develop.
CONCLUSION
The
research on predictive maintenance for motor and gearbox systems at PT Angsana
Coal has demonstrated significant improvements in operational reliability and
equipment longevity. By transitioning from a reactive and planned maintenance
strategy to a predictive maintenance framework grounded in vibration analysis,
PT Angsana Coal has successfully reduced the frequency and severity of
unforeseen failures, leading to enhanced system performance and minimized
downtime. The application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) enabled
the identification and prioritization of critical failure modes, such as
bearing wear and misalignment, allowing for effective implementation of
preventative measures. The results, including the substantial reduction in
vibration levels post-maintenance interventions, highlight the effectiveness of
predictive maintenance in stabilizing equipment functionality and achieving
compliance with ISO 10816-3 standards. These findings confirm that predictive
maintenance, supported by systematic analysis and targeted interventions,
provides a reliable framework for optimizing equipment performance in mining
operations.
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Doni Muharom, Liane Okdinawati (2024) |
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First publication right: Asian Journal of Engineering, Social and Health (AJESH) |
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