Yamaha Nmax Motorcycle Demand Forecasting Model at Yamaha Rolya Motor Dealers with Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Demand forecasting is basically a projection of the demand for a company's products or services. Forecasting is also referred to as forecasting sales. Rolya Motor's main problem lies in the fluctuating demand for Yamaha Nmax motorbikes, making demand targets not in accordance with what has been determined and excess or shortage of goods. Exponential smoothing is a moving average time series method that weighs past data exponentially so that the most recent data has greater weight. The purpose of this study is to forecast the demand for Yamaha NMAX motorcycles one season ahead and adjust them to future targets and inventory stocks using the Exponential Smoothing method. Trial and error method on parameter values 0,1<?< 0,9 ; 0,1<?<0,9 ; 0,1<?<0,9, indicating the smallest MSE value is located at point ? = 0,9; ? =0,1 ; ? =0,9 with a value of 0.058. Based on the research results, companies should use the Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing method because it has quite good demand forecasting results when compared to the actual demand six months ahead in 2022.