Analysis of Prediction of Land Availability in Residential Areas Using the Cellular Automata Method in Batangan District

Abstract

The land cover change will be impacted by population growth and its activities. This research aims to predict land cover change in the Batangan sub-district from 2013 to 2033. The method used is quantitative, based on satellite image data, followed by cellular automata modeling using the MOLUSCE plugin on QGIS software. The land cover themes used are open areas, built-up areas, forests, water bodies, agriculture and livestock, and transportation. Spatial variables that are considered to influence the prediction results are road networks, built-up areas, agricultural land, and water bodies. The predicted land area that can be used for settlements in 2033 is 272.81 hectares, while the land required for settlements based on population projections with additional labor due to the existence of industrial allotment areas is 840.74 hectares. This results in a shortage of land for the development of residential areas of 567.93 hectares, which should be a concern for the local government in making policies for residential areas in the Batangan sub-district. The implications of this land cover change also need to be considered in the environmental and social contexts.