Scenario Exploration on Business Development of 2W EV Ride Hailing Service in Indonesia with System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) adopted by two-wheeled (2W) ride-hailing services represents a significant effort by ride-hailing providers to promote green investment and demonstrate their commitment to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, in alignment with government mandates to accelerate EV adoption. Understanding the market penetration and breakthroughs is essential to achieving the intended outcomes of emission reduction and behavioral change. Given that the existing market is relatively new and complex, it is crucial to maintain an equilibrium within a holistic system that includes the government, ride-hailing providers, drivers, and passengers to comprehend the diffusion of the market across the entire value chain. This study aims to develop a conceptual model to investigate the complex dynamic relationships among factors and linkages of government policies that influence ride-hailing providers in constructing business models and adopting 2W EV ride-hailing services in Indonesia. The conceptual model is developed using causal loop diagrams to capture the adoption process of 2W EV ride-hailing services, while a system diagram is created to comprehensively illustrate the challenges in 2W EV ride-hailing services. The results of this study can serve as a basis for developing strategies and scenarios to enhance the adoption of 2W EV ride-hailing services in Indonesia.