Scenario Planning of Carbon Emission Reduction Effort to Support Net Zero Emission Program by Implementing Good Mining Practices at Pt Borneo Indobara

Abstract

Each nation has responsibility to set a target for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions as National Determined Contribution (NDC) as promise in Paris Agreement at the Conference of Parties 21 (COP 21) held in 2015. This research focuses on identification source of emission and how to manage of emission reduction of green-houses gasses (GHG) for scope 1 as direct emissions sources that owned or controlled by PT Borneo Indobara (PT BIB). This study is important for PT BIB to avoid additional cost due to carbon tax and reduce operating cost of expensive fuel price in the next coming years after Government of Indonesia (GOI) issued mandate to use Biofuel B40 in 2025. Carbon tax have been regulated after issuance of policy and regulation by GOI such as Law No 7 – 2021 regarding Tax Harmonization, President Regulation No 98-year 2021 regarding Economic Carbon Value but the implementation remains delayed and unclear for the mining industries. The delaying implementation of government regulation become one of the most uncertainties mentioned by key decision makers in the companies that select as respondents. To obtain deeper information of PT BIB’s CO₂ emission reduction effort, this study using PESTEL external analysis, pareto analysis and scenario planning methodology.  PT BIB’s business process that generate significant CO₂ emission are overburden haul trucks activity (52,4%), big excavator for overburden and coal excavation (16,5%), medium trucks for coal hauling activity from pit to port (14%), mine equipment support (12,7%), coal transshipments at the middle of the sea (2,2%), logistic and employees transportation (1,5%), coal crushing plant and coal loading into the barges (0,5%) and other non-mine activities (0, 2%). Scenario planning deployed in this study using five steps of Kahane’s transformative scenario planning to create four scenarios. Deductive method of scenario planning is used to deploy matrix 2 x 2 to generate four scenarios from the information gathered during focus group discussion or in-depth interview with key decision makers. Two keys uncertainties identified are government regulation and technology readiness that analyze using PESTEL industry analysis. Four scenarios propose to implement CO₂ emission reduction effort in the company such as (i) scenario 1 Bridge to The Future (accelerated electrification); (ii) scenario 2 Black Gold Renaissance (policy-driven grid reliance); (iii) scenario 3 Decarbonize or Disappear (Fragmented Transition); (iv) Stranded Policy (Stranded Assets and Cost Overrun). Each of scenario has various implication and impact to the total amount of CO₂ emission could be eliminated with the range of emission reduction from 10% - 60%.