Evaluation of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emission Reduction in Indonesia in Line with the Indonesian Government's Roadmap Towards Net Zero Emissions 2060

Abstract

Indonesia aims to achieve Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060, with the electricity sector as the primary contributor to emissions due to the dominance of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). This study evaluates the emissions trajectory of Indonesian CFPPs and the alignment of their implementation with the national energy transition roadmap through 2045. The analysis was conducted using unit-level operational data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) covering 318 CFPP units (71.63 GW) that are operational, permitted, announced, or under construction. Annual and cumulative emissions calculations were based on the technical characteristics of each unit, including capacity, commercial operation date (COD), and combustion technology. The results show that, under a baseline scenario without accelerated retirement, average annual emissions will reach 394.607 MtCO? during the period 2026–2045, with total cumulative emissions of 7.892 GtCO? by 2045. The findings also indicate a concentrated distribution of emissions, with the 20 highest-emitting units contributing 24.9% of total annual emissions, suggesting carbon lock-in in a small number of large-capacity power plants. Although the government’s roadmap establishes milestones for the phase-out of CFPPs in 2031, 2037, and before 2055, it does not include quantified emission reduction targets or specify which units will be retired; therefore, consistency with the decarbonization pathway cannot yet be verified quantitatively. These findings indicate that, without explicit and measurable emissions-based interventions, the operational structure of coal-fired power plants through 2045 will not automatically align with the decarbonization trajectory toward NZE 2060.